COP28: What's happened so far?

The creation of the LADF  – as we discussed at the time – was agreed in principle at COP27, but certain essential details relating to funding mechanisms and cash mobilisation were not finalised at that stage. Amidst widespread commentary that agreement on the details would become a point of contention between signatory states, a surprise agreement on the LADF was reached on the very first day of COP28.

It was certainly a positive announcement to kick-off COP28, with initial funding pledged amounting to almost $429 million. It has been agreed that the World Bank is to host these funds in the interim and that the final text will be signed off at the end of the summit. Although reaching agreement in relation to the LADF is a significant achievement, it has been emphasised by several NGOs that the level of funding will need to significantly increase if the LADF is to have a material impact.

In addition to the LADF, over 120 countries signed a declaration acknowledging their responsibility for public health in the context of climate change. The UAE, together with a group of NGOs and charitable foundations, offered $777 million in funding (separately to the funds already committed under the LADF) for research and action to eradicate a wide range of tropical diseases whose impacts will worsen with global warming. Diseases such as malaria and illnesses linked to malnutrition will be the focus of the program, which will be co-ordinated by the World Bank.

In news that will be welcomed by many businesses looking for increased certainty regarding global renewable infrastructure investment, 123 nations have signed a pledge to triple the world's renewable energy capacity by 2030 in a move designed to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. The pledge included an agreement to phase out the financing of new coal-fired power plants and a goal to double measures to promote energy efficiency internationally (also by 2030).

At the same time as this pledge was made, a smaller group of 22 states signed a declaration aiming to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050, a measure which will require a significant number of new reactors to be built in years to come, potentially including small modular reactors – which have been championed by the UK. For either pledge to be successful in meeting its goals, key issues like unlocking sufficient financing for investment will need to be addressed.

The GDA, which has been widely regarded as a cornerstone of the COP28 Presidency, was announced on day three of the summit.

The GDA includes a pledge from 50 major energy companies (together comprising around 40% of global oil output) to entirely eliminate Scope 1 (direct) emissions from their operations by 2050 and all methane emissions by 2030. The agreement has, however, drawn widespread criticism – including from UN Secretary General António Guterres who said measures "clearly fall short of what is required"

The main source of criticism is that the GDA excludes signatories' Scope 3 emissions, being those which arise from the downstream consumption of fossil fuels produced by signatory companies (i.e. those estimated to represent the greatest proportion of energy companies' overall emissions).

Day two of COP28 resulted in 134 signatories to the 'Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action'. This multifaceted declaration includes a number of important measures like the inclusion of agriculture and farming emissions in national action plans, a combined $400 million in initial funding for research into reducing carbon emissions in the agricultural sector and multilateral co-ordination between signatories to affect the goals of the declaration.

On Sunday, COP28's 'Health Day' concluded in the first ever COP declaration squarely aimed at the intersection of climate action, security and humanitarian action, in a move backed by over 70 state signatories and 39 NGOs. The 'Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace' aims to increase the visibility and climate change resilience of those in fragile or conflict-affected states. Signatories agreed to a package of immediate support for such vulnerable communities and to increase collaboration to make funding accessible for the countries and communities who most need it most.

As we approach the halfway point, further significant developments at COP28 are expected. While there have been a number of achievements to date, COP28 has not been immune to controversy, including comments made by the COP28 President, Sultan al-Jaber, that there is "no science" requiring the phase-out of fossil fuels to achieve Paris Agreement alignment. This statement has been widely contested by the scientific community, and Sultan al-Jaber has since clarified his position, stating that the phase-down and phase-out of fossil fuels is "inevitable".

As set out in our article prior to COP28, the Global Stocktake and development of the Green Climate Fund are two highly significant agenda points that remain open at COP28. These are likely to come into sharp focus through the latter half of the summit and outcomes from these discussions will be key indicators of COP28's overall success.